Some Thoughts on China-India-United States Trilateral Relations

Cheng Ruisheng

       In the 21st century, the rapid development of both China and India, the two largest countries in Asia and the two most populous countries in the world, will be a very important event of historical significance. At the same time, the United States will remain the only super power for a long period. Therefore, the international community has attached much importance to the development of the trilateral relations between China, India and the United States, which has also become a very interesting question being studied by a number of scholars.

A Short Review of the Cold War Period

       The Cold War was characterized by the rivalry and confrontation between the two super powers, the United States and the former Soviet Union. South Asia was a flank of the Cold War. It could be seen that during this period, due to various reasons, the trilateral relations between China, India and the United States was not an important factor in international politics.
       In the 1950s, China had an alliance with the Soviet Union and confrontation with the United States and both China and the Soviet Union had good relations with India. Since China had no diplomatic relations with the United States and India adopted a neutral policy between the two blocs, trilateral relations between China, India and the United States were not formed.
       In the 1960s, when China and India had confrontation over the boundary question, India once sought cooperation including military aid from the United States, especially during the 1962 border conflict between China and India. But the border conflict did not last long and since India did not agree to readjust its policy on Kashmir to cooperate with Pakistan against China as proposed by the United States, India’s military cooperation with the United States was limited. In international affairs, India continued to pursue its non-aligned policy and did not join the military blocs formed by the United States. On the other hand, Pakistan had a fast improvement of its relations with China, despite Pakistan’s participation in the military blocs formed by the United States and despite of the fact that China’s confrontation with the United States Continued. Thus, during 1960s, there was only a short period when the trilateral relations between China, India and the United States played a role, with India cooperating with the United States against China.
       In the early 1970s, China’s relations with the United States underwent a drastic change due to U.S. President Nixon’s historical visit to China. Pakistan played a very important intermediary role in bringing around China and the United States. India responded by signing a treaty of alliance with the Soviet Union. Thus when the third war between India and Pakistan broke out in 1971, there was confrontation between Pakistan, China and the United States on the one hand and India and the Soviet Union on the other.  Since the two super powers were heavily involved forming two opposite fronts, the factor of the trilateral relations between China, India and the United States was subordinate to the larger confrontation.
       In the early 1980s, the above-mentioned confrontation continued for a period due to invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union. But India also opposed the Soviet invasion to some extent. With the readjustment of foreign policy by both China and India, relations between China and India were improved step by step, leading to Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China in 1988. China’s relations with the Soviet Union were also normalized thanks to Gorbachev’s visit to China. Thus even before the end of the Cold War, the situation in South Asia already witnessed gradual relaxation.
       From the above, one can see that the trilateral relations between China, India and the United States should not be studied in an isolated way. There were a number of other important players like the former Soviet Union (now Russia), Pakistan and other South Asian countries, ASEAN, Japan and European Union.
       It can also be seen that confrontation during the Cold War was very costly for various relevant countries. When China was under the pressure of India-US cooperation in the 1960s, India was also under the pressure of China-Pakistan cooperation. This greatly exhausted the resources of the relevant countries. Later, when there was confrontation between China, Pakistan and the United States on the one hand and India and the Soviet Union on the other, this again greatly exhausted the resources of the relevant countries. History has proved that the best choice for various countries is to have peaceful coexistence on the basis of the Five Principles and to cultivate a new concept of security.
       
       Alliance between Any Two against the Third Unlikely

       After the end of the Cold War, Russia’s influence in South Asia was greatly reduced for a certain period and was on the rise again in recent years. The United States became the sole super power in the world. Compared with other major outside powers, the United States has more leverage for influence in South Asia. With the fast development of the comprehensive national strength of both China and India, the question of how the trilateral relations between China, India and the United States will develop has drawn the attention and interest of many people.
       I. It is worth analyzing whether there is great possibility that two of the three countries will form an alliance against the third.
       In recent years, some people in the United States, including some government officials, have considered China to be some kind of potential threat to the United States in the long run and have suggested to improve and elevate relations with India, with the intention to have India as an ally in guarding against China in the future.
       During her visit to Japan in March, 2005, U.S. Secretary of State Rice, describing the “rise of China” as a new factor in global politics, said that while the United States regarded China as a partner and desired its prosperity, China’s political direction was unknown and the strategic context in Asia demanded that the United States should foster stronger ties with Japan, South Korea and India. She said, “So, as we look to China’s life, I really do believe that the U.S.-Japan relationship, the U.S.-South Korean relationship, the U.S.-Indian relationship, all are important in creating an environment in which China is more likely to play a positive role than a negative role.” She further said, “These alliances are not against China, they are alliances that are devoted to a stable security and political and economic and indeed, value-based relationships that put China in the context of those relationships, and a different path to development than if China were simply untethered, simply operating without that strategic context.” 
       It has been noted that in recent years, relations between India and the United States witnessed major developments. The Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh paid a visit to the United States in July, 2005. During U.S. President Bush’s visit to India in March, 2006, a nuclear cooperation agreement was signed between India and the United States, through which the United States actually recognized India to be a new nuclear weapon state against the regulations on NPT. Military cooperation between India and the United States also developed very fast.
       However, though the above-mentioned view of Ms. Rice might be shared by some people in India, the Indian Government has repeatedly reaffirmed that it would adhere to its independent foreign policy and that its relations with the United States would not affect its relations with China.
       On August 3, 2005, making a statement on his visit to the United States in July that year, the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that the agreement reached between India and the United States to access nuclear technology was not a military alliance aimed against China. He said, “We are not ganging up against any country, least of all China.  This is not a military alliance or any alliance against any country.” He further said, “We see new horizons in our relations with China. What we have done with the United States is not at the cost of China or any other country. Instead, we have broken new grounds in promoting closer relations with that great neighbor of ours (China).” It is also noted that in his speech on June 27, 2005 during his visit in Washington, the Indian Defense Minister Mukerjee (now Foreign Minister) said that in the face of a rising Asia in the 21st century, if the United States still sought for hegemony, India would not serve as its “attach”.
       It is certainly in conformity with India’s supreme national interest not to enter into alliance with the United States or any other country against China. The reasons are obvious: (1) India’s present friendly relations with China have brought much benefit for both India and China. There are no reasons to change them. (2) China is India’s largest neighbor. Any new confrontation with China will only sabotage India’s peaceful environment, which is so important to India’s economic and social development, with the noble goal of becoming a developed country in the 21st century. (3) The United States usually attaches some conditions in its cooperation with other countries. Differences have emerged between India and the United States on such questions as the pipe-line from Iran to Pakistan and to India, the U.S. insistence that India should not conduct any nuclear test again and others. (4)Though India and the United States have similar values and social systems, their histories have been very different. While the United States had a history of continuous expansion after its founding, India was under the British colonial rule for several hundred years and achieved independence only in 1947. Therefore, India has been very sensitive on questions relating to its independence and sovereignty. (5) In India, leftist parties together with their masses still have strong influence, which are opposed to India’s closer cooperation with the United States. (6) At present, China’s friendly cooperation with Pakistan and other South Asian countries are not directed against India. However, if there is new confrontation between India and China due to India’s alliance with the United States, the situation may witness certain changes. (7) India has been supporting the multi-polarization and democratization of international politics and holds different views with the United States on a number of important questions including Iraq and Iran. Therefore, India’s cooperation with the United States in international affairs has its limitations. (8) India has its traditional close relations with Russia. In recent years, trilateral cooperation between China, India and Russia has made good progress. This factor will also be considered by India in its decision-making.
       On the part of China, how China will act in facing the closer cooperation between India and the United States is also a very important question. If China adopts a tit-for-tat policy as various major powers did during the Cold War, the situation might get deteriorated. However, with lessons of the Cold War in mind, China will adopt a calm attitude and act cautiously. With or without the so-called “strategic context” designed by Ms. Rice, China will continue its independent foreign policy of peace and make its own efforts to improve relations with both India and the United States. China’s own good relations with both India and the United States will be the best choice for China to deal with the situation.
       II. Then it needs to be studied whether China and India would form an alliance against the United States in the future.
       It is true that China and India share identical views and stands on a number of international questions, different from those held by the United States. However, both China and India have adopted a practical policy in their relations with the United States. Though geographically the United States is far from both China and India, the United States, as the only super power with its influence all over the world, is also an important “neighbor” for both China and India. For both China and India to have a peaceful environment for their economic and social development, good relations with the United States are imperative. Economically, the United States is a huge market and a major source of investment and high technology for both China and India. Both China and India have also sent large numbers of students to the United States for education. With all these links in view, both China and India have attached much importance to their bilateral relations with the United States, so that their differences with the United States on international questions have become secondary.
       Under these circumstances, neither China nor India would try to form an alliance against the United States. Then what should be the choice for solving the international questions? The answer is: the United Nations. In the Joint Statement issued during Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to India in April, 2005, it is stated that “the two sides reiterated the importance of the United Nations in global peace, stability and common development and expressed their determination to continue their efforts, together with the international community, in strengthening the UN system to develop a sound multilateral basis to address global issues.” It is encouraging to note that both China and India have already made a number of joint efforts on the settlement of international questions.
       III. Now the question to be studied is whether China and the United States would form an alliance against India in the future.
       It is recalled that after the nuclear tests of India, China and the United States once had close cooperation on the question of non-proliferation against India. During U.S. President Clinton’s visit to China in June, 1998, China and the United States even issued a Joint Statement on South Asia, in which it was stated that “close coordination between China and the United States is essential to building strong international support behind the goals to which we are committed in response to nuclear testing by India and Pakistan”.
       However, this cooperation and coordination did not last very long. After some time, both China and the United States came to recognize that non-proliferation was only a secondary question and should not be a major obstacle in their overall relations with India. While India expressed its desire to improve relations with China and the United States, China and the United States also readjusted their policies to India accordingly. Thus, the Indian President Narayanan paid a goodwill visit to China in May, 2000, restoring mutual visits at the summit level between China and India. The U.S. President Clinton paid a visit to India in March, 2000, being the first U.S. President to visit India after twenty two years.
Since at present the United States considers China rather than India to be a potential threat to the interests of the United States in the future and has been trying hard to form an alliance with India, there is no possibility that China and the United States would cooperate again against India. However, since there is still common interest between China and the United States in maintaining peace and stability in South Asia, some kind of cooperation in this respect will still be continued.
       After studying the above three questions, it might be concluded that in general, the balance of the trilateral relations between China, India and the United States could be maintained for a long time in the future, though some unstable factors might crop up sometimes. This balance would be very conducive to peace and development in Asia and the world.

       Fields Possible for Cooperation

       It would indeed be pacifying if China, India and the United States could have peaceful coexistence for a long time. However, it would be even more important if these three great nations, with their vast territories and huge economic, technical and human resources, could conduct cooperation in a number of fields, to promote peace and development of the world through their joint efforts. For this purpose, wisdom, vision and farsightedness are needed.
       The following could be considered as some fields possible for their cooperation.
       I. The United States will remain the largest economy in the world for a long period. However, according to a report issued by Goldman Sachs in October, 2003, China’s GDP will surpass that of the United States in 2041 and India’s GDP will surpass that of Japan in 2035. Therefore, to promote a sound economic order of the world, there will be many fields in which China, India and the United States could try to cooperate and avoid conflict, such as international trade and finance, technical exchange, energy, environment protection, climate change, etc.
       II. In international affairs, China, India and the United States could hold trilateral consultations on a number of questions so as to make joint contribution to promote the settlement of them, such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, non-proliferation regime, nuclear disarmament, UN reform, etc.
       III. Since all three countries have space program including flights to moon, some kind of cooperation and coordination will be conducive to them including exchange of technical know-how.
       IV. Terrorism is one of the major threats to the world in the 21st century. The three countries could carry on cooperation in the struggle against terrorism and hold joint studies on the root causes of terrorism and the right ways and means to deal with it.
       V. Since India is the largest country of SAARC, and both China and the United States have been accepted as observers to SAARC, the three countries could hold consultations on the relevant questions, with emphasis on expansion of the trade between SAARC and other regions including China and the United States. 
       VI. Since both China and India have a significant legacy of traditional medicine (herbs), which have been proved effective in curing some diseases, and the United Stated is quite developed in western medicine, joint research could be conducted by the three countries to find out better medical treatment for the world people.
       It could be seen from the above that there are many fields possible for cooperation between the three countries. In order to promote the cooperation, the three countries could set up trilateral regimes, both on government level and non-government level, for joint study and consultations. The regimes should not be exclusive, and other relevant countries could also join if necessary.
       It is genuinely hoped that China, India and the United Stated, through their joint efforts and cooperation, could make greater contribution to the well-being and prosperity of the world.