Climate change is a common concern of the international community and a hot topic on the international agenda. What is climate change? How is it caused? Why is it a hot topic? What is China’s position? The author tries to analyze some of these questions from his own perspective and understanding of this issue.
I. Introduction
1. Causes of Climate Change. Scientifically speaking, climate change can be caused by both natural factors and human activities. But in the present international negotiations on climate change, only the human dimension of climate change is addressed. According to the definition of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate change “means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”. 2. How do human activities change climate? Since industrial revolution in the mid 18th century, human beings have used a lot of fossil fuels and emitted large quantity of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous oxide (N2O), Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCS), Perfluorocarbon (PFCS) and Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), can absorb and re-emit infrared radiation. When the greenhouse gases concentration becomes denser in the atmosphere, it will lead to the increase of surface temperature of the earth like a greenhouse. According to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere before 1750 (pre-industrial revolution) is 280ppm, but in 2005, the concentration increased to 379ppm. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years. The current concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere has led to an increase of global mean temperature by 0.56-0.92°C. If the present speed of emission of greenhouse gases continues, it is projected that the global mean temperature will rise 1.1 to 6.4°C and the sea level will rise by 0.09 to 0.88 meters. 3. Impacts of climate change. Climate change can lead to serious problems to the earth. Firstly, it may cause the melt of ice caps and snow cover in the polar areas and on high mountains, and result in expansion of sea water, which will lead to sea level rise and affect billions of people living along sea side areas. Secondly, climate change may aggravate extreme whether/climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, etc. and lead to more damage to the world. Thirdly, climate change may cause health problems or lead to the wide spread of diseases. And lastly, climate change may affect the natural ecosystem, food safety, sustainable development and even the existence of human society.
II. Responses of the international community to address climate change
1. The adverse effects of climate change have been observed by scientists since the 1970s. At the First World Climate Conference sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1979, representatives and scientists of IMO member states raised the issue of climate change and urged governments “to foresee and to prevent potential man-made changes in climate that might be adverse to the well-being of humanity.” The Conference identified the leading cause of global warming as increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide resulting from the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and changes in land use. 2. Recognizing the problem of potential global climate change, WMO and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) established the IPCC in 1988 to assess the scientific, technical and social-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. Since 1990 IPCC has publicized four assessment reports on climate change, which has laid an important scientific foundation for the international community to address climate change. 3. In December 1990, right after the issuance of the First Assessment Report of IPCC, the 45th session of the General Assembly of the United Nations adopted Resolution 45/212 that established an Intergovernmental Negotiation Committee (INC) to negotiate a framework convention on climate change. After five sessions of intense negotiation, INC reached agreement on the UNFCCC on May 9th, 1992, which was opened for signature during the Summit on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and entered into force in 1994. 4. The Convention has mainly provided the objective, principles and general commitments of the Parties in addressing climate change. Due to the fact that climate change is a common challenge of the international community but was mainly caused by the historical and current high per capita emissions of greenhouse gases of developed countries, the UNFCCC provided that the responsibility of developed countries and developing countries in addressing climate change was common but differentiated. Annex I Parties (developed countries and countries with economies in transition) should take the lead in reducing greenhouse gases emissions. In addition, developed countries should provide new and additional financial resources and transfer environmentally sound technologies to developing countries to enhance their capacity to address climate change. 5. Due to the framework nature of the UNFCCC, it is impossible to reduce greenhouse gases emissions solely based on the provisions of the UNFCCC. At the first session of the Conference of Parties (COP 1) in 1995, the Parties concluded that the commitments for Annex I Parties as provided in the UNFCCC are not adequate and decided to begin a process to strengthen the commitments of Annex I Parties through the adoption of a protocol or another legal instrument. This decision is called the Berlin Mandate. In accordance with the Berlin Mandate, the Parties began the negotiation of a protocol to implement the UNFCCC. At COP 3 in 1997 in Kyoto, the Parties reached agreement on the protocol. The protocol is named the Kyoto Protocol because it was adopted in Kyoto. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force in February 2005 and provides that Annex I Parties shall reduce their overall emissions of greenhouse gases emissions by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012 . 6. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force in 2005 and provided that each Annex I Party shall, by 2005, have made demonstrable progress in achieving its commitments under the Protocol. According to the National greenhouse gas inventory data of Annex I Parties for the period 1990-2004 compiled by the Secretariat of the UNFCCC, developed countries did not reduce GHG emissions but increased their emissions by 11% above their 1990 level , little progress has been made in technology transfer, limited progress has been made in the provision of financial resources and assistance in capacity building. However, in 2004, GHG emissions from countries with economies in transition decreased by 36% due to economic decline. 7. Due to the fact that the Kyoto Protocol only provides the commitments of Annex I Parties in the commitment period 2008 to 2012, the first session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Protocol (CMP 1), held in 2005 in Montreal, set up an ad hoc Working Group (AWG) in accordance with the provisions of Article 3.9 of the Protocol to consider further commitments for Annex I Parties beyond 2012. So far the AWG has made little progress in achieving its objective due to the reluctance of Annex I Parties to make further commitments beyond 2012.
III. Main elements of addressing climate change
1. Climate change is not only an environmental issue, but also a development one. It is caused in the course of development and should be addressed through development. Developed countries have achieved industrialization and have the technologies and financial resources to address climate change. However, per capita emission is much higher than that of developing countries. So it is important for developed countries to change their luxurious and unsustainable production and consumption pattern so as to achieve lower per capita GHG emissions. While, developing countries need to achieve development and poverty reduction in a sustainable way by using advanced technologies. However, developing countries do not have advanced technologies and international technology cooperation is urgently needed. Without technology transfer, it is inevitable for developing countries to increase GHG emissions in the course of development and poverty reduction. Furthermore, only development will enable developing countries to increase their capability to adapt to climate change. 2. Equity must be taken into full account. Developed countries are the major contributors of GHG concentration in the atmosphere and continue to maintain high per capita emissions today. According to statistics, from 1750 to 2000, developed countries, accounting for only 20% of the world population, emitted 79% of the world total greenhouse gases . It is also clearly stated in AR4 that per capita emission in developed countries in 2004 is 16.1 tons CO2e , while per capita emission in developing countries in the same year is only 4.1 tons CO2e . It is very clear that developed countries are responsible for the GHG concentration in the atmosphere. They should take the responsibility to immediately reduce their GHG emissions. Developed countries often argue that people today cannot be held responsible for what their ancestors did in the past. Legally speaking, they should. At least, they should be responsible to the extent comparable to the property that they inherited from their ancestors. Even if the historical emissions are not taken into account for the moment, it is not convincing for developed countries to maintain a much higher per capita emission even today and to point fingers to developing countries for not taking quantified emission reduction/limitation commitments. Human beings are created equal and have equal emission rights. The emitting space is the common heritage of humankind and nobody should take a lion’s share. In order to achieve equity among same generations and between generations, developed countries should act immediately to take the lead to reduce their per capita GHG emissions. Let me give an example. In a restaurant, some people have already had their dinner, some people are having the dinner and some people have not yet started the dinner. Then suddenly, those people who have already had their wonderful dinner heard that there might be a famine and said to the other people in the restaurant that all of them should stop having their dinner, because if they continue their dinner, they will not have enough food for the next day and the future. Is this fair? Developed countries have achieved industrialization and have already had their rich dinner, while developing countries have the same right to achieve industrialization and have the dinner. That is equity. 3. International competitiveness is not an issue either among developed countries or between developed countries and developing countries if developed countries take the lead to address climate change. Additional costs incurred from addressing climate change by companies in developed countries will not affect the competitiveness of their products. Firstly, only a small part of products enter into the international market and the majority is marketed domestically. Secondly, developed countries and developing countries sell different products and do not compete with each other. Thirdly, for many high-tech products such as aircrafts, complicated machineries, automobiles, etc., developing countries have no competitive capability at all. Fourthly, even if developing countries may gain some advantage for primary products, the money is earned by importers of developed countries. If developed countries all take comparable GHG reduction commitment, no competitiveness issue will come up among them.
IV. China’s position towards addressing climate change
1. China believes that climate change is a common concern of the globe and should be addressed by the international community through coordination and cooperation. No single country or a group of countries is capable of addressing a global issue of such a magnitude. The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol have already laid a good foundation for the international community to address climate change and we should move along that path. 2. However, climate change is mainly caused by developed countries due to their long historical emissions and current high per capita emissions. Based on these facts, the UNFCCC provided that “the Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” and “accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof” . In order to implement the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol provided that developed countries should reduce at least 5% of their GHG emissions upon their 1990 level from 2008 to 2012 and should continue to reduce GHG emissions through amendments in accordance with Article 3.9 of the Kyoto Protocol. It is believed that so far developed countries have not yet fulfilled their commitments to reduce GHG emissions because some developed countries have not yet ratified the Kyoto Protocol, some developed countries have considerably increased their GHG emissions upon 1990 level and developed countries have showed little political willingness to continue to take quantified emission reduction after 2012. 3. Developing countries are still at the stage of development, their first and overriding priorities are economic and social development and poverty eradication. It is indispensable for developing countries to increase their energy consumption and GHG emissions if they are to achieve development and poverty eradication. Current emissions from developing countries belong to emissions for a basic living and are far from enough for a decent life. However, in the course of development and with assistance of developed countries, developing countries should endeavor to avoid replicating the development path of pollution first and then protection and make their development more sustainable and less carbon. In this way, developing countries can make great contribution to the protection of our climate.
4. To reduce GHG emissions needs to de-carbonize our economic development through energy efficiency, development of renewable energy, nuclear energy, carbon capture and storage, etc. Therefore, technology plays a critical role in addressing climate change and international cooperation on technology R&D, deployment and transfer is of great importance. It is desirable and necessary to set up a technology cooperation mechanism to enable developing countries to afford and to have access to advanced technologies. In this regard, assistance from developed countries in financial resources and capacity building needs to be resolved along with technology cooperation. 5. Climate is changing now. Due to poor infrastructure, low level of development and fragile eco-systems, developing countries are vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, such as floods, droughts, tornados, etc. It is very important to tackle the issue of how to adapt to climate change. In the past, too much emphasis was put on mitigation. It is believed that adaptation must be put on an equal footing with mitigation in the future and be integrated in future arrangement on climate change.
V. China’s measures to address climate change
1. China attaches great importance to climate change and has taken a series of policies and measures to address it in the overall context of its national sustainable development strategy and outstanding achievements have been made. In accordance with the provisions of the UNFCCC and its national circumstances, China has formulated China’s National Climate Change Programme (CNCCP), outlining the guidelines, basic principles and specific objectives in addressing climate change, as well as policies and measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change in key areas. 2. China is the most populous country in the world, with a relatively low level of economic development, a coal-dominated energy mix and relatively weak capability to address climate change. Climate change has caused and will continue to cause adverse impacts on China’s natural ecosystem and socio-economic system. China’s per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in 2004 are 3.65 tons, about 33% of that of OECD countries. The CO2 emission intensity per unit GDP is generally on a declining trend, with a decrease of 49.5% in 2004 as compared to1990, while only 16.1% for OECD countries. 3. In order to address climate change, China has restructured its economy and improved energy efficiency, which has avoided 1,800 Mt CO2 emissions from 1991 to 2005. China has made great effort to develop low-carbon and renewable energy to optimize the energy mix, which increased the share of renewable energy in the total energy consumption to 7.5% in 2005, equal to an annual avoidance of 380 Mt CO2 emissions. China has implemented strong policies on afforestation, reforestation, forest management and forbidding deforestation, which has increased carbon sinks or avoided emissions of up to 5,110 Mt CO2 from 1980 to 2005. The policy on family planning has generated co-benefits on controlling GHG emissions. According to statistics, over 300 million births were avoided by 2005, equal to an avoidance of 1,300 Mt CO2 emissions in 2005 alone. In addition, China has enacted laws and regulations, established institutions and mechanisms, enhanced climate change research and capacity building and raised public awareness to address climate change. 4. China will make more efforts to control GHG emissions. It is clearly pronounced in the 11th Five Year Plan that China will make achievements in controlling GHG emissions and reduce energy consumption per unit GDP by 20% by 2010 compared with the 2005 level. In order to achieve this in 2010, China will increase the share of renewable energy to 10% in primary energy supply, stabilize nitrous oxide emissions from industrial processes at 2005 level, control the growth rate of methane emissions and increase the forest coverage rate to 20% which will increase carbon sink by 50 million tons over 2005 level. By implementing these measures, more than one billion tons of CO2 is to be avoided by 2010. China will also make more efforts to enhance adaptation capability by improving grasslands, desertfied lands, forest ecosystems, etc.
VI. Conclusions
Climate change is a common challenge of the international community and calls for the widest possible international cooperation. Developed countries, due to their long historical emission and current high per capita emission, should take the lead to reduce GHG emissions after 2012, while other countries should make contribution to addressing climate change in accordance with their responsibilities and capabilities. Mitigation and adaptation are of equal importance. To address climate change must be coordinated with economic development. It is very important to make full use of the potentials of advanced technology to address climate change. The best way to address climate change is to achieve sustainable development. China, attaching great importance to the issue of climate change, has made and will continue to make contribution to addressing climate change.
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